Kalamazoo, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

430
FXUS63 KGRR 041758
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
158 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and Windy Today, Rain and Thunderstorms Tonight

- Cooler with Frost/Freeze Potential This Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

- Warm and Windy Today, Rain and Thunderstorms Tonight

Southwest flow and warm air advection ramp up today with highs in
the mid 70s across much of the area. It won`t be as windy as
yesterday, but gusts 25 to 35 mph are expected to develop this
morning into the afternoon. With the warm temperatures and gusty
winds there is an elevated fire risk today. Check the FIRE WEATHER
section below for more information.

Our next shortwave trough that will help spark off shower and
thunderstorm development moves in this evening from the Northern
Plains. Upper level divergence picks up with the approaching
trough with some low level convergence with the low level jet
across southern Michigan. This convergence could spark off showers
and storms near the I-94 corridor around 6PM. Shear around 30 to
40 knots and MUCAPE values around 1000 J/kg along with decent mid
level lapse rates and a deep dry layer at the surface will pose a
risk for severe storms. Damaging winds and large hail are
possible, with the best risk south of I-96. An approaching cold
front will spark off additional showers and thunderstorms further
north and shift slowly southeast overnight into Tuesday.

- Cooler with Frost/Freeze Potential This Week

The cold front will still be moving through southeast portions of
the area Tuesday with some lingering rain showers before dry
conditions return Tuesday night into Wednesday. Behind the cold
front colder air will be advecting in. Depending on winds and
cloud cover frost/freeze conditions will be possible each night
into the weekend.

The upper level low will remain over the Hudson Bay area and
continue to rotate shortwave troughs through the region. Chances
for rain will depend on the timing and moisture with each
shortwave. At this time slight chances (20 percent) for rain
exist each day into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Prevailing VFR expected over the next several hours with few to
scattered cumulus bases around 6,000 feet. Winds will be gusty
from the southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may
develop between AZO and JXN after 22 Z, followed by a 2 or 3 hour
period of showers and some embedded thunderstorm cells in the
vicinity of a cold front sweeping through the whole area from
west to east between 00 and 06 Z. Any thunderstorms will be
capable of microbursts and outflow resulting in gusty winds up to
40 or 50 knots and LLWS.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

A lull in Small Craft Advisory conditions will be short lived as
southwest winds build once more this morning into Monday
afternoon. The highest waves will be north of Holland of 3 to 6
feet. Some isolated gales are possible toward Big Sable this
afternoon before winds fall below Small Craft Advisory levels this
evening. High waves will linger a few hours longer before dropping
below 4 feet prior to midnight.

Thunderstorms are expected this evening along a cold front with
winds shifting to the northwest behind the front. Winds and waves
are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through
the rest of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026

A warm, windy, and dry airmass over the region will bring elevated
fire weather conditions for today. Wind gusts around 35 mph with
isolated gust toward 40 mph could cause fires to quickly spread.
Minimum relative humidity values this afternoon are expected to
drop into the mid 20s across much of the area. There is a 20
percent chance for minimum relative humidity values to drop below
25 percent east of US-131 and north of I-96. Avoid activities with
open flames or sparks and avoid power equipment that create
sparks. Check for any burn bans in your local area.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...RAH